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Simulation of Fire Spread at Melampes region in 2022, using the FlamMap software

Manassakis Georgios

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Summary

This study focuses on the simulation of the wildfire that broke out in Melampes, Rethymno, on July 15, 2022, using the FlamMap software. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the software in predicting the wildfire's progression. This particular fire burned approximately 20,000 hectares over a 15-day period.The primary data used for the simulation included weather data obtained from the nearest meteorological station to ensure greater accuracy in modeling the wildfire's progression. Additionally, the methodology involved creating the input data required for the model in the wildfire area. Specifically, data were generated for elevation, slope, aspect, fuel model (which describes the type and density of vegetation), canopy cover (the percentage of the area covered by trees), canopy height (the average height of trees), canopy base height (the height from the ground to the base of the tree canopy), and canopy bulk density (the density of foliage within the canopy).All data were created using ArcGIS software, which was used to process the geographic data of the area. These processed data were then used to produce the input file for FlamMap, containing the required landscape data.After preparing the data, the landscape file, weather data, and other necessary settings were imported into FlamMap to execute the simulation. The simulation lasted for 15 days, corresponding to the total duration of the wildfire.The simulation results were compared with satellite images recorded during the wildfire. This comparison revealed a deviation between the simulated fire progression and the actual fire. In all cases, the deviation was positive, with the simulated burned area exceeding the observed one. This discrepancy can be attributed to various factors, such as the accuracy of the input data, the limitations of FlamMap in fully capturing real-world conditions, and external factors or human interventions that may have influenced the actual fire progression.In conclusion, FlamMap proved to be a reliable tool for simulating wildfire progression and can serve as a valuable resource for evaluating and predicting fire behavior. This software has significant potential and can be utilized by relevant authorities, especially at a time when wildfires are among the most severe threats to many regions worldwide.

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