Institutional Repository
Technical University of Crete
Technical University of Crete
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| URI: | http://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/D46EB6E2-F416-4548-BF29-BBBEAAD93CD4 | ||
| Year | 2022 | ||
| Type of Item | Diploma Work | ||
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| Bibliographic Citation | Konstantinos Kafkalias, "Fuzzy system for forecasting tourist arrivals under pandemic conditions", Diploma Work, School of Production Engineering and Management, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece, 2022 https://doi.org/10.26233/heallink.tuc.93334 | ||
| Appears in Collections |
The catastrophic consequences caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, have decisively affected the economy and especially the tourism industry, both globally and domestically. The uncertainty caused for the levels of tourist demand in 2021, in relation to the gradual vaccination coverage of citizens against the disease, intensified the market’s need to find reliable forecasting models, appropriately adapted to the new reality imposed by the pandemic, in order to predict tourist demand. Nonetheless, how likely is it to quantify the factors and the results of human thought, especially in conditions of global crisis? This paper, aims to create a forecasting model of tourist arrivals in Greece for the year 2021, using techniques based on fuzzy logic systems. In particular, as basic criterion for the creation of fuzzy rules, is taken the level of vaccination coverage of the total population in Greece, in countries which are to be considered as competitive in the tourism sector and in countries from which tourism development depends on. Finally, the results of the model, are compared with the monthly aggregated data of tourist arrivals.
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