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Climate projections for Greece: Insights from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble.

Kaza Ioanna

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Summary

Global climate change is one of the most pressing issues of modern life as it significantly impacts many aspects of human life. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has been instrumental in enhancing our understanding of climate dynamics, both past and future, particularly with the progression from CMIP5 to the more advanced CMIP6 experiments, played a key role in climate study, especially with the advancement from CMIP5 to CMIP6 experiments. This progress results in new challenges for interpreting and exploiting the abundant climate data available to the scientific community. The increasing number of models that participate in climate experiments (more than 100 for the CMIP6) leads to the necessity of representative climate model selection for the needs of impact studies. The complexity of the selection among the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is essential in the implementation of similar applications.My thesis, entitled "Climate Projections for Greece. Insights from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble" focuses on the region of Greece which is particularly sensitive to the impacts of climate change. The study aims to analyze temperature and precipitation trends from the pre-industrial period until the end of this century (2100) focusing on the wider region of Greece, studying historical data and future simulations according to the changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble.The basic analysis was conducted using the Climate Data Operator (CDO), following a structured methodology. First, mean global temperature and precipitation were calculated for 26 selected CMIP6 models, followed by the calculation of these parameters specifically for the region of Greece using the same models. Next, the results were compared with observation data and reanalysis from ERA5. An analysis of trends was then performed according to different SSP-RCP scenarios to present the range of expected changes in temperature and precipitation. Finally, representative models were selected based on reliability, representativeness, and independence criteria.The study attempts to provide a comprehensive overview of the diversity of the possible climate future scenarios in the Greek region. Exploring the present trends as well as the future projections according to different SSP-RCP scenarios we aim to understand the range of the expected climate changes and limit down to a plausible and manageable and representative CMIP6 sub-ensemble.

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