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Comparison of satellite and ground-based estimates of burned area in Greece: Evaluating NASA MODIS MCD64A1 data against fire agency reports for 2002–2023

Zervaki Chrysanthi-Elpida

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Summary

Wildfires are among the most impactful natural disasters, severely impacting ecosystems, human communities, and economies. While fires contribute to certain natural processes for the regeneration and evolution of some ecosystems, the increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires are largely driven by human activities, climate change, and extreme weather events. In Greece, forest fires are a major threat to ecological balance, with human involvement identified as the leading cause. As a result, the need for effective wildfire monitoring and prevention is the most vital and urgent that it has ever been. This study compares burned area estimates derived from NASA’s MODIS MCD64A1 global product, with ground-based records from the Hellenic Fire Service over the period 2002-2023. Satellite products, like MODIS provide consistent global-scale data for understanding, managing and mitigating wildfires. By collecting, processing, and analyzing these datasets, this research examines the temporal evolution of wildfires, their spatial distribution, and their relation to land use. The results of the comparison between 2021-2023, indicate an average absolute difference between MODIS and Fire Service data of approximately 5%. Moreover, when excluding cropland areas, which are often misclassified as burned by satellite, the average monthly discrepancy rises to 52% for Greece over the entire period of study. In large wildfire events, MODIS estimates are closer to Fire Service records, although its overall accuracy is limited by factors such as cloud cover, complex terrain, spectral similarity between land types, and coarse spatial resolution, leading to differences in smaller fire events where ground-based observations are more precise. By identifying and analyzing the similarities and differences between MODIS satellite data and official ground-based estimates, this study evaluates the reliability and limitations of each dataset in the context of wildfire monitoring in Greece. The findings aim to enhance understanding of wildfire dynamics across spatial and temporal scales and to inform the development of more informed strategies for fire monitoring and management.

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