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Impact of climate change on the subground aquifer of Mallion, Hersonissos, Heraklion, Crete, using the princeton transport code (ptc)model for the period 2005-2045 and based on the climate scenarios rcp 4.5 and rcp 8.5

Siachou Vaia

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Summary

This study examines the effects of climate change on the aquifer of the Malia–Hersonissos region of Crete for the period 2005–2045. The assessment was carried out using the Princeton Transport Code (PTC), which is implemented in the Argus One modeling environment. This numerical model solves spatially varying equations describing groundwater flow based on the finite element and finite difference method. The study area is part of a dynamic hydrogeological system where dependence on groundwater is significant due to intensive agricultural and tourism activities. Overexploitation has already led to declining groundwater levels and increasing risks such as salinization. A comprehensive overview of the meteorological, geological, and hydrological characteristics of the region is provided and an analysis of the potential impacts of the climate crisis on water resources and water security is carried out. The simulations were carried out for two climate change scenarios (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, which differ in terms of precipitation input. Historical and projected daily precipitation data were converted into monthly values, categorized into rainy and dry seasons, and entered into the model accordingly. The PTC model was configured with a mesh of three soil layers, 90 time periods and corresponding boundary conditions. A total of 58 pumping wells were included in the simulation. After execution, four characteristic nodes were selected for a detailed analysis of the development of the hydraulic head. The results were then processed in MATLAB, where time series plots were generated for each node and climate scenario. The results show that nodes exhibit stable hydraulic behavior with limited fluctuations in groundwater levels, while nodes show larger seasonal fluctuations, especially during wet periods. The differences between the two climate scenarios are relatively small, indicating a moderate climate sensitivity of the aquifer within the simulation horizon. In summary, this study shows that groundwater levels in the region remain within acceptable limits despite seasonal fluctuations. At the same time, the model identifies nodes with varying degrees of vulnerability to climate variability. The use of the PTC simulation tool proves to be a valuable aid in the prediction and management of groundwater resources, especially in regions under increasing stress from human activities and climate change.

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