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Analysis of spatial flood risk in the South Region of Attica

Rekatsinas Alexandros

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Summary

This study presents and analyzes the assessment of flood hazard in the broader region of the Southern Sector of Attica. Flood events represent one of the most frequent, costly, and deadly natural disasters globally. Consequently, the analysis and comprehensive understanding of this phenomenon — and the associated risks to human life and economic activity — are essential for the implementation of preventive measures and the mitigation of adverse impacts through the development of flood protection infrastructure.The model developed for the spatial assessment of flood risk was implemented within the ArcGIS software environment. The spatial evaluation was conducted using a multi-criteria analysis method via ArcMap, integrating six (6) key factors: Elevation, Slope, Flow Accumulation, Geology, Land Use, and Rainfall Intensity. These parameters are directly correlated with the occurrence and severity of flood phenomena. Subsequently, the relevant data were processed, and thematic maps corresponding to each factor were generated. These maps were classified into five (5) risk levels — Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High — based on the Natural Breaks (Jenks) classification method, in order to spatially depict flood hazard levels.By combining the weighted influence of each factor and aggregating them, a composite flood hazard map for the Southern Sector of Attica was produced. The findings of the study indicate that the South Region constitutes a predominantly high-risk area, a conclusion corroborated by previous analyses and historical flood event records, which highlight extensive economic damage to properties and, in certain cases, loss of human life.Additionally, a future flood risk scenario was developed, focusing on flash flood events, which are considered the most destructive and dangerous type of flooding. Specifically, three scenarios were modeled, involving projected increases in rainfall intensity by 10%, 30%, and 50%, respectively. Corresponding hazard maps were generated for each scenario. The results indicate a marked increase in flood hazard within the urbanized areas of the region under these intensified precipitation conditions.

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