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The 2023 Evros Wildfire and the study of its Association with climate change

Kyrimi Paraskevi-Romi

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Summary

The 2023 wildfire in the Evros region of northeastern Greece was the largest ever recorded in the European Union, burning nearly 94,000 hectares and raising urgent questions about the role of climate change in extreme fire events. This thesis investigates the meteorological conditions during the event and evaluates to what extent anthropogenic climate change influenced the likelihood of such extremes.The analysis combined reanalysis and impact-model datasets. First, meteorological data from ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF) were retrieved for July–September over the period 1940–2024. Temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation were analyzed and used to compute the Fire Weather Index (FWI). In parallel, bias-adjusted climate input from ISIMIP3a (GSWP3–W5E5) was examined under two scenarios: obsclim (with anthropogenic forcing) and counterclim (without anthropogenic forcing), allowing an attribution assessment.Results show that during the Evros wildfire, meteorological conditions were exceptionally conducive to fire spread. ERA5 data indicate a persistent heat episode, very low humidity, strong winds, and negligible rainfall, producing FWI values that peaked above 80, among the highest on record. Analysis of the historical series revealed a clear upward shift in the frequency of days exceeding the 90th and 95th percentiles of FWI after the 1990s, consistent with Mediterranean summer warming and drying. Comparison of obsclim and counterclim scenarios demonstrated that the observed extremes would have been far less probable in a climate without anthropogenic warming. Specifically, during 19 August–3 September 2023, most daily FWI values corresponded to ≥99th percentiles in the counterclim world, highlighting their exceptional rarity in the absence of human influence.This work provides robust evidence that the anthropogenic climate signal has shifted the distribution of fire weather conditions in northeastern Greece, substantially increasing the likelihood of extremes such as the 2023 Evros wildfire. The findings underscore the importance of integrating climate attribution into fire risk assessment and preparedness planning in the Mediterranean.

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