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Analyzing correrations between environmental and socio-economic factors with carbon dioxide emissions: a statistical approach

Anagnostopoulou Ioli-Maria

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Summary

This thesis investigates the determinants of per-capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and quantifies their relationships with socioeconomic and energy-system characteristics across countries. The study integrates a concise theoretical synthesis-covering the radiative role of CO₂, its long atmospheric lifetime, and the limits of natural sinks (oceans, forests, soils)-with an empirical analysis of international datasets. The central objective is to identify which country-level variables most consistently explain the intensity and variation of CO₂ emissions and to derive policy-relevant insights for decarbonization.The theoretical framework outlines how anthropogenic CO₂ accumulates when the airborne fraction remains positive, translating into warming, ocean acidification, and more frequent extremes, while impacts are unevenly distributed across geographies and income levels. Sectorally, power and heat, industry, and transport dominate global emissions; thus, energy mix composition and mobility patterns are expected to be statistically salient drivers-an expectation the empirical section puts to test.Methodologically, the thesis assembles harmonized indicators for per-capita CO₂ emissions and explanatory variables: GDP per capita (proxy for energy demand and economic scale), social indicators (e.g., child mortality, life satisfaction), energy metrics (per-capita fossil fuel use; power generation shares from coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables), and transport variables with emphasis on aviation. The analysis employs scatter plots, bivariate ordinary least squares, and multiple regression specifications to assess direction, strength, and robustness of associations.Results are consistent and policy-coherent. Per-capita emissions are positively correlated with GDP per capita, with fossil fuel consumption, and with the share of fossil-based electricity, confirming that carbon intensity rises where prosperity is still produced through fossil-centric systems. By contrast, the share of renewables in power generation exhibits a negative association with emissions, highlighting its pivotal role in mitigation. Transport variables (especially air transport indicators) show stable positive links with national carbon footprints, underscoring a hard-to-abate sector. Social indicators add context: lower child mortality tends to co-occur with higher emissions per capita, reflecting development asymmetries rather than causality and pointing to climate-justice considerations.In multivariate models, three clusters remain decisive: income (as a demand proxy), fossil intensity in the energy mix, and renewable penetration. Natural gas displays an intermediate profile-potentially lowering emissions when displacing coal, but insufficient as a stand-alone pathway absent methane-leak controls and rapid renewable and storage deployment.Overall, the findings indicate that credible decarbonization hinges on rapid power-sector transformation (greater renewable shares and storage), structural efficiency gains in industry and buildings, and targeted measures in transport-particularly aviation-alongside fair transition policies. The thesis thereby connects physical-climate theory with empirical evidence, showing that sustained economic development can be reconciled with declining emissions when energy systems and technologies are deliberately reoriented toward low-carbon trajectories.

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