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Ανάλυση κόστους οφέλους και εκτίμηση επικινδυνότητας μεταλλευτικών δραστηριοτήτων σύμφωνα με τους όρους κυκλικής οικονομίας και περιβαλλοντικού αντικτύπου

Machairas Evaggelos

Πλήρης Εγγραφή

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Περίληψη

The consecutive increase in demand for metals corresponds to the proportional increase in mining activities worldwide. Respecting the principles of the Circular Economy, as expressed through relevant legislation, the 4Rs action plan (reducing the production of mining waste, recovering and recycling the beneficial metals contained in mining tailings, and reusing them in separate industrial applications) should be implemented to transition existing or future mining activities into sustainable mining practices.It is essential to note that secondary mining processes, particularly the recovery of metals from mining tailings, contribute positively to minimizing environmental and supply risks associated with metals while supporting the life cycle of mining companies. The utilization of metals contained in mining tailings, combined with an environmentally friendly action plan, offers additive economic benefits for each mining company that adopts it by selling the recovered metal mix for various industrial applications. Supporting the life cycle of mining activities associated with innovative mining waste management practices in terms of the Circular Economy requires the establishment of a closed system of industrial units enclosing the hazardous mining waste (tailings) to avoid any potential leachate risks, as in the conventional waste management practices of tailings disposal to be reused in backfilling or stonewalling.The precipitation of mining tailings containing metal ions, combined with the acidic character of these hazardous leachates, can occur when tailings disposal sites are overloaded or subjected to heavy rainfalls, and this can have a catastrophic impact on the environment and human health. Additionally, it refers to the loss of beneficial material from adsorption by the ground soil. The proposed alternative technique of tailings management through a closed system of metal recovery minimizes the risks of environmental pollution and loss of metal ions due to precipitation in the downstream soil area, as opposed to conventional mining waste management practices. This PhD dissertation, considering the real industrial needs and risks of the mining sector, examines the level of sustainability for a proposed innovative technique for mining waste management, comparing it with the corresponding grade of sustainability associated with conventional mining waste management practices.Hence, two comparable cases are examined and assessed. Case Scenario A(0) refers to the conventional methods of tailings disposal using geomembranes and geological fractions, accepting the potential risks of environmental pollution and the systematic risks of non-compliance with mandatory legal obligations that align with the policy of the Circular Economy. Case Scenario A(1) refers to the innovative method of tailings utilization to recover metals contained within them, which adopts a high degree of conformance with the mandatory legal obligations of the mining sector and implements the principles of the 4Rs.The current scientific study employs an engineering risk analysis approach structured by the Cost-Benefit Analysis guidance and the Stochastic Risk Assessment methodology of Bayesian Analysis to determine the practical sustainability of each examined case based on the corresponding techno-economic approach. The implementation of the Cost-Benefit Analysis using applicable statistical simulation provides a forecast of the total financial risk related to each case over the next thirty working years. The application of Stochastic Risk Assessment using Bayesian Analysis detects (a) the grade of financial risk escalation calculated through the implementation of Cost-Benefit Analysis for each examined case and (b) the cases that are likely to occur instead of pure theoretical conditions. Thus, the entire engineering risk analysis tool provides a comprehensive financial risk assessment that guides optimal business decision-making for each mining company before the commencement of mining activities.Regarding the practical application of the current research, it is essential to note that combining Cost-Benefit Analysis with Stochastic Risk Assessment provides an objective method for assessing financial risk by converting all technical and legal parameters into monetary terms. Moreover, results show an extremely low deviation between the two methodological approaches for the cases that are likely to occur in actual industrial circumstances. At the same time, it is detected that Case Scenario A(1) is more sustainable than Case Scenario A(0), showing a lower risk grade of approximately 4.8 times.Considering the role of Financial Engineering Risk Analysis, supported by Cost-Benefit Analysis and Stochastic Risk Assessment using Bayesian Analysis tailored to industrial conditions, it is understood that this approach provides a comprehensive tool for evaluating the techno-economic sustainability of similar projects based on cost, risk, and potential benefits. This methodological framework of Financial Engineering risk analysis can be utilized by both financial institutions that fund sustainable mining action plans and practices, as well as mining company administrations aiming to develop their activities in terms of sustainable mining and the Circular Economy.

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