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Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near- and far-field seismic sources

Synolakis Kostas, Titov, Vladislav Vladimirovič, Jonhson, Jeffrey A. informaticien, Carlton, Dennis W, Bellomo, Donatello, Parsons, Talcott, 1902-1979

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Extent19 pagesen
TitleProbabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near- and far-field seismic sourcesen
CreatorSynolakis Kostasen
CreatorΣυνολακης Κωσταςel
CreatorTitov, Vladislav Vladimirovičen
CreatorJonhson, Jeffrey A. informaticienen
CreatorCarlton, Dennis Wen
CreatorBellomo, Donatelloen
CreatorParsons, Talcott, 1902-1979en
Content SummaryThe first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk.en
Type of ItemPeer-Reviewed Journal Publicationen
Type of ItemΔημοσίευση σε Περιοδικό με Κριτέςel
Date of Item2015-10-10-
Date of Publication2009-
SubjectSeismic Sea Wave Warning Systemen
Subjecttsunami warning systemen
Subjectseismic sea wave warning systemen
Bibliographic CitationF. I. Gonzalez, E. L. Geist, B. Jaffe,3 U. Kanog ̆lu, H. Mofjeld, C. E. Synolakis, V. V. Titov, D. Arcas,8 D. Bellomo, D. Carlton, T. Horning, J. Johnson, J. Newman, T. Parsons,2 R. Peters, C. Peterson, G. Priest, A. Venturato, J. Weber, F. Wong, and A. Yalciner ,"Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for nearand far-field seismic sources, " J. of Geophysical Res.-Oceans, vol. 114, 2009.doi:10.1029/2008JC005132en