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Technical University of Crete
Technical University of Crete
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| URI: | http://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/4C3395D6-6DA2-4895-B073-AC48B1475C28 | ||
| Year | 1999 | ||
| Type of Item | Conference Full Paper | ||
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| Bibliographic Citation | M. Spanos, G. Dounias, N. Matsatsinis, C. Zopounidis ," A fuzzy knowledge-based decision aiding method for the assessment of financial risk: the case of corporate bankruptcy prediction,"in European Symposium on Intelligent Techniques,1999,pp. 14-21. | ||
| Appears in Collections |
In many real world problems it is often difficult to find dependencies between the variables of a process or more general of a system, dependencies which can be used for controlling a plant, forecasting a value or classifying a group of objects into pre-defined classes. Since in many cases, analytic dependencies are unknown or very difficult to set up, the formulation of dependencies with the help of fuzzy rules offers a useful alternative. This paper presents the combined use of a fuzzy rule generation method and a data mining technique for financial risk assessment. The case of business failure is considered here and the classification of the firms into two classes is sought. Initially, a method for the generation of fuzzy rules is used. Then these rules are imported to a data mining technique so as the firms can be classified into as bankrupt or non-bankrupt. The fuzzy method supports the discovery of relevant dependencies by the automatic generation of if/then rules on the basis of expert knowledge, while the data mining technique, with the help of a fuzzy rule-based classifier, assigns an object to different classes on the basis of various different characteristics (financial ratios). Finally, a thorough comparison with discriminant analysis, logit and probit analysis is performed based on the same sample.
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