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Time series analysis of rainfall in cities of northern Crete - investigation of a connection to climate change

Antonakaki Kleanthi

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Summary

This study aims to examine the rainfall occurring in Chania, Heraklion, and Sitia, and to extract conclusions on whether there is evidence suggesting a connection to climate change.At first the study provides an extensive profile of the study area, analysing the geographical, morphological, and climatic characteristics of Crete, while also referring to land and water use on the island. The area’s hydrological characteristics, such as the drainage basins and water supply systems it consists of, as well as information that comprises its water balance, are also described.Afterward an attempt is made to designate and touch on the issue of climate change, and mentions possible consequences related to rainfall and other parameters in the case of Crete.The analysis of rainfall time series spans the period between 1958 and 2018 for the three cities mentioned above. Rainfall data collection involved several organisations, including the National Observatory of Athens, the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, and the Decentralised Administration of Crete, while data analysis was done using the Minitab software. Each city is statistically analysed, and they are then compared in pairs, showing a stronger correlation between Heraklion and Sitia (with a coefficient of determination of 8.67%), and indicating that Chania experiences the largest amounts of rainfall. Given that it experiences the largest rainfall amounts, Chania was chosen as the case study for the comparison and correlation of the factors of temperature and sunshine in relation to rainfall. Here, it emerged that a moderate to strong negative correlation exists in both combinations. Rainfall amounts were also compared between Chania and Tympaki, a city of southern Crete in Heraklion city, showing that as rainfall amounts increase in Chania, they also increase in Tympaki (strong correlation with a coefficient of determination of 75.84%). An effort has also been made to forecast rainfall amounts in Chania for the next three years, using the time series decomposition method.Finaly at the study contained commentary and conclusions that emerged from the data analysis process. Here, it became apparent that certain climate change phenomena can be observed in all three cities included in this study.

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