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Analysis of the spatial flood risk in the area of Agios Nikolaos, Crete

Tzermias Emmanouil

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Summary

The present study is about the assessment of the flood risk in the area of Agios Nikolaos, Lasithi, Crete. Flood events are among the most common and most devastating natural disasters. The consequences in terms of economic losses and human lives can be disastrous depending of the severity of the event, so spatial risk analysis is essential for the authorities to mitigate the effects. In this study, spatial risk assessment carried out using Geographic Informations System software ArcGIS.For the assessment a multi-criteria analysis was done using six factors, Flow Accumulation, Rainfall Intensity, Slope, Elevation, Land Use and Geology of the area. Using ArcGIS for the data procession six thematic hazard maps were created one for each factor describing the risk spatially into five risk level categories, Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, Very High. Finaly the creation of flood risk map of Agios Nikolaos was done by summing the factors according to the impact of each factor has (by percentage) on the flood event. The results validation was done through historical and literature references and showed that the area of Agios Nikolaos is low to moderate in terms of flood risk. Next, a future risk assessment carried out for the time periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 based on the intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In particular, data from scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 were used. After calculating the increase of Rainfall Intensity for each of the scenarios eigh new risk maps were constructerd for each increase. The results showed that flood risk in low altitude areas, urban areas and coastal areas increased.

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