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Sustainable island design, based on energy forecasting, Milos island

Vichos Emmanouil

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Summary

The islands’ energy enhancement is a vital global goal to achieve sustainable development, as it simultaneously requires the energy production’s modernization, as well as the ecological footprint’ elimination of the process. But it is essential to ensure that the elimination of air pollutants is accomplished by reckoning in the sectors of economic euphoria and social acceptance. In this master's thesis, the prospect of upgrading a small-sized island, which relies on fossil fuels’ burning to cover its energy needs, was examined. Initially, meteorological data for the region were collected from the NASA website, as well as the corresponding estimates for the year 2030, through the Meteonorm software. Then, hourly energy consumption data was collected for the island, in order to determine its future energy profile, through the use of prediction models in Matlab software. The data was then used by Homer-PRO optimization software to model and simulate 7 different scenarios, aiming to find the optimal solution to achieve sustainable development. The main regulatory parameters for scenarios’ modeling concern the source of energy production (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines) and the utilization of storage systems for the excess generated energy. Through the simulation and comparison of each scenario’s system, the need to upgrade the current system was proven, as it is not in line with technological progress and the needs of the times. In addition, the optimal solution was determined, to ensure sustainable development in the case-study area, requiring the combination of different renewable energy sources, as well as the use of energy storage systems, to ensure energy autonomy. Specifically, the optimal proposed scenario ensures complete elimination of the region’s ecological footprint, while at the same time drastically reducing the levelized cost of energy (by €0.182/kWh). A sensitivity analysis was conducted, to evaluate the system’s stability to potential changes, showing that reduced wind speed or/and increased power demand can significantly change the system, in contrast to reduced solar power density (moderate change) and the imposition of an environmental penalty for pollutants (negligible change). Finally, indicative suggestions for future research are mentioned.

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