Ιδρυματικό Αποθετήριο
Πολυτεχνείο Κρήτης
Πολυτεχνείο Κρήτης
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| URI | http://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/28C53796-D629-400B-8AC0-282F8EF93E82 | - |
| Αναγνωριστικό | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2348 | - |
| Αναγνωριστικό | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2348 | - |
| Γλώσσα | en | - |
| Μέγεθος | 13 pages | en |
| Τίτλος | A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: a source of disagreement in future drought assessments | en |
| Δημιουργός | Satoh Yusuke | en |
| Δημιουργός | Shiogama, Hideo | en |
| Δημιουργός | Hanasaki Naota | en |
| Δημιουργός | Pokhrel, Yadu | en |
| Δημιουργός | Boulange Julien | en |
| Δημιουργός | Burek Peter | en |
| Δημιουργός | Gosling Simon N. | en |
| Δημιουργός | Gryllakis Emmanouil | en |
| Δημιουργός | Γρυλλακης Εμμανουηλ | el |
| Δημιουργός | Koutroulis Aristeidis | en |
| Δημιουργός | Κουτρουλης Αριστειδης | el |
| Δημιουργός | Müller Schmied Hannes | en |
| Δημιουργός | Thiery Wim | en |
| Δημιουργός | Yokohata Tokuta | en |
| Εκδότης | IOP Publishing | en |
| Περίληψη | Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts) with four temporal scales of interest, we evaluated changes in the drought frequency using multi-model and multi-scenario simulations to identify areas where the definition issue could result in pronounced uncertainties and to what extent. We investigated the disagreement in the signs of changes between drought definitions and decomposed the variance into four main factors: drought definitions, greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, global climate models, and global water models, as well as their interactions. The results show that models were the primary sources of variance over 82% of the global land area. On the other hand, the drought definition was the dominant source of variance in the remaining 17%, especially in parts of northern high-latitudes. Our results highlight specific regions where differences in drought definitions result in a large spread among projections, including areas showing opposite signs of significant changes. At a global scale, 7% of the variance resulted independently from the definition issue, and that value increased to 44% when 1st and 2nd order interactions were considered. The quantitative results suggest that by clarifying hydrological processes or sectors of interest, one could avoid these uncertainties in drought assessments to obtain a clearer picture of future drought change. | en |
| Τύπος | Επιστολή | el |
| Τύπος | Letter | en |
| Άδεια Χρήσης | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en |
| Ημερομηνία | 2023-02-17 | - |
| Ημερομηνία Δημοσίευσης | 2021 | - |
| Θεματική Κατηγορία | Drought projections | en |
| Θεματική Κατηγορία | Uncertainty | en |
| Θεματική Κατηγορία | The issue of drought definition | en |
| Θεματική Κατηγορία | Sources of uncertainty | en |
| Θεματική Κατηγορία | ANOVA | en |
| Βιβλιογραφική Αναφορά | Y. Satoh, H. Shiogama, N. Hanasaki, Y. Pokhrel, J. E. S. Boulange, P. Burek, S. N. Gosling, M. Grillakis, A. Koutroulis, H. Müller Schmied, W. Thiery, and T. Yokohata, “A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition: a source of disagreement in future drought assessments,” Environ. Res. Lett., vol. 16, no. 10, Sep. 2021, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2348. | en |
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