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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Kreibich Heidi, Van Loon Anne F., Schröter Kai, Ward Philip J., Mazzoleni Maurizio, Sairam Nivedita, Abeshu Guta Wakbulcho, Agafonova Svetlana, AghaKouchak Amir, Aksoy Hafzullah, Alvarez-Garreton Camila, Aznar Blanca, Balkhi Laila, Barendrecht Marlies H., Biancamaria Sylvain, Bos-Burgering Liduin, Bradley Chris, Budiyono Yus, Buytaert Wouter, Capewell Lucinda, Carlson Hayley, Cavus Yonca, Couasnon Anaïs, Coxon Gemma, Daliakopoulos Ioannis, de Ruiter Marleen C., Delus Claire, Erfurt Mathilde, Esposito Giuseppe, François Didier, Frappart Frédéric, Freer Jim, Frolova Natalia, Gain Animesh K., Grillakis Emmanouil, Grima Jordi Oriol, Guzmán Diego A., Huning Laurie S., Ionita Monica, Kharlamov Maxim, Khoi Dao Nguyen, Kieboom Natalie, Kireeva Maria, Koutroulis Aristeidis, Lavado-Casimiro Waldo, Li Hong-Yi, LLasat María Carmen, Macdonald David, Mård Johanna, Mathew-Richards Hannah, McKenzie Andrew, Mejia Alfonso, Mendiondo Eduardo Mario, Mens Marjolein, Mobini Shifteh, Mohor Guilherme Samprogna, Nagavciuc Vio

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Summary

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.

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