Institutional Repository
Technical University of Crete
Technical University of Crete
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| URI: | http://purl.tuc.gr/dl/dias/B1F4BB6E-ACDE-4464-8A43-8C8332A918C0 | ||
| Year | 2022 | ||
| Type of Item | Doctoral Dissertation | ||
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| Bibliographic Citation | Argyrios Alexopoulos, "Mathematical modelling of cyber-attacks and proactive defenses ", Doctoral Dissertation, School of Production Engineering and Management, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece, 2022 https://doi.org/10.26233/heallink.tuc.92991 | ||
| Appears in Collections |
The main purpose of this dissertation is to document a holistic modelling background and set up a corresponding mathematical theory in order to provide a rigorous description of cyber-attacks and cyber-security. Proactiveness of cyber-security is the foremost and paramount concern of the current research approach. The starting point is to determine the critical assets of cyberspace, define them consistently and elaborate the attack vectors that may affect them. Concepts as node constituent, valuations and vulnerabilities of parts of a node constituent are cornerstones throughout the dissertation. Based on fundamental concepts, one may be led to consider the concept of node supervision and subsequently to give the definition of cyber-effects and from this the definition of cyber interaction. We describe the germ of cyber-attack that can be viewed as a family of cyber interactions with coherence properties and depending strongly on subjective purposes, information and/or estimates on the valuations and the vulnerabilities of parts of the involved nodes. In general, the germs of cyber-attacks can be distinguished in three types: the germs of correlated cyber-attacks, the germs of absolute cyber-attacks and the germs of partial cyber-attacks. This approach provides immediate possibility of rigorous determination of the concepts of proactive cyber defence and proactive cyber protection.Enumerating and describing a non-exhaustive list of attack vectors using the approach of the dissertation, we propose adequate proactive mitigation measures. We then try to elaborate a holistic mathematical approach to a rigorous description of Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actors’ modus operandi through various scenarios and Cyber Kill Chain stages. APT focused approach is tried due to competency, high intention and capabilities of these actors, likely using attack vectors at the threshold of defensive ecosystems. Relevant elements of Cyber-Attacks conducted by APT actors presented and proposals of some techniques (via 5 scenarios) of tracking the modus operandi of these sophisticated and non-linear cyber actors.
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