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Comparison of methodologies for the calculation of air emissions in shipping. Model development and optimization of fuel consumption

Doundoulakis Emmanouil

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Summary

Shipping is an important and growing source of air emissions, which affect climate change, but also have extremely adverse effects both on ecosystems and on the health and quality of life of citizens. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the E.U. recognizing this potential problem, albeit relatively belatedly, has taken two key steps:1) From the beginning of January 2020, a maximum sulfur content limit has been imposed on marine fuels, in order to limit in this way the gaseous emissions of Sulfur Oxides (SOX) as well as Particulate Matters (PM)2) Since June 2013 it has defined a three-step strategy for the gradual integration of maritime transport into the European policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, where as a first step, ship owners arriving at or departing from EU ports, they should monitor, calculate and report to the E.U. the air emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) for each year, starting from 2018 (EU MRV 757/2015). At a later stage, targets are expected to be set to reduce these air emissions, while ultimately further reduction measures will include the management and exchange of CO2, within the framework of the European Trading System (ETS).However, given that ship-owners do not publically publish data on the air emissions of their ships, nor on the fuel consumption, we are forced to apply various calculating methodologies to estimate them and it is of great importance to apply the most reliable and exact method, depending on available data. One of the most important goals of our work is to implement such a calculation method and to compare with real-reported date proving by this way its reliability and accuracy.All the available options for the parameters involved in the various calculation methodologies were analyzed, the most correct ones were selected and four calculation scenarios were implemented. The proposed basic scenario is based on a detailed estimation of the Specific Fuel Oil Consumption (SFOC) through regression analysis as well as the power of the ships' engines according to the manufacturer.As a case study we examined the air emissions (CO2, SOX, NOX, PM2.5 and PM10) from all passenger ships (passenger ferries and cruise vessels) in the main ports of Crete (Souda and Heraklion) over a period of five years, from 2017 to 2021. For any researcher dealing with the calculation of air emissions due to shipping, the question is almost about the accuracy of the methodology and results. Since the actual fuel consumption and air emissions were not available a few years ago, the EMSA/MRV-THETIS database which implemented as a result of the EU-MRV Regulation 757/2015 is a very useful tool to retrieve the actual fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from all ships approaching European ports. One of the major objectives was to compare the four different calculation scenarios with data from the EMSA/MRV-THETIS database and establish by this way the reliability and accuracy of the proposed methodology. From this comparative analysis we found out that the results of the basic scenario methodology are the ones that are very close (6-12%) to those published by the EU MRV.Based on the accuracy of the calculated air emissions following basic scenario methodology, we complete our study by calculating their external costs. These costs cover effects on human health, damage to materials and buildings, damage to biodiversity and crop losses caused by gaseous pollutants. Also, in line with the 'polluter pays' policy which appears to be the EU's gradual approach to the commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from shipping, we understand that the upcoming EU policy for the shipping sector is the EU ETS.As we have seen by calculating external costs, these are a significant percentage of shipping companies' revenue (they are about 25-35% in the last years from 2019 onwards) which means that if the companies are asked to pay, then there will be a significant revenue loss, with the worst case scenario being that they will not be able to absorb this cost and probably pass it on to the ticket fare of each passenger / vehicle / truck ticket. With this aim, an analysis and determination of this additional cost was made (we called it "Externalities Surcharge") which shows the potential burden on tickets that will arise in case shipping companies are asked to pay for the air emissions they cause during the approach of their vessels in the ports of Crete.

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